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What Does Donald Trump’s Election Mean to Asia?

Fair Trade and American First Policies

The United States and China on January 15, 2020 signed an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal. The agreement requires structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime. Chapters with Key Achievements include: Intellectual Property, Technology Transfer, Agriculture, Financial Services and Expanding Trade.

[1] Office of the US Trade Representative Fact Sheet

When elected President in 2020, Joe Biden followed the lead of his predecessor, Donald Trump regarding international trade policy implementation. These negotiated terms continued in the face of evidence that Biden family members have engaged in corrupt practices and received payoffs from Chinese companies in the recent past.

A colorful picture of the word love in different colors.

From a US Congressional Investigation Report:
The money trail begins in July 2017 when son Hunter Biden demanded payment from his Chinese Communist Party (CCP) linked associate. On July 30, 2017, Hunter Biden sent a message to Raymond Zhao—a CEFC associate—demanding a $10 million dollar capital payment and claimed his father, Joe Biden, was sitting in the room. CEFC is a Chinese energy company linked to the CCP. The Bidens began working with CEFC when Joe Biden was Vice President (of USA).

[2] Affidavit of Tony Bobulinski, Exhibit 400A

[3] Comer Reveals How Joe Biden Received Laundered China Money, US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability

China Unfair Trade Practices Challenged

Trump’s American First Policies in Chinese trade relations were brought into sharp focus through months of serious negotiations early in his first administration (2017-2021). Go-along to get-along Free Trade at American Expense policies of previous administrations were replaced by this agreement, signed in the East Room of The White House.

This is One of the Most Historic and Enduring Accomplishments of Trump’s First Administration

United States Trade Representative (USTR), Robert Lighthizer negotiated against pretend capitalist Chinese Communist apparatchiks, who continually reneged on negotiated terms until their feet were held to the fire. Expect Lighthizer to play an important continuing role in the coming Trump administration.

A picture of alaska chalet bed and breakfast.

From Lighthizer’s book:
Congress created new tools to prevent imports from harming the US economy…Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 gave the president broad authority to use tariffs and other trade restrictions in response to unfair or discriminatory trade practices…designed to ensure that freer trade did not lead to US workers and businesses being harmed by a flood of imports. (P 51)

For decades it has been evident that China was never the aspiring democratic paradise that free traders wanted to pretend it was. Now China is the greatest threat that the American nation and its system of Western liberal democratic government has faced since the American Revolution. And we helped make it happen. (p 89)

Leightheizer explains how Section 301 authority to use tariffs to combat unfair trade practices had become dormant in the free trade globalization matrix and he recommended bringing it back to life in his capacity as USTR.

We decided to single out the most egregious of China’s actions that were clearly within the parameters of Section 301. We would focus on technology theft, cyber intrusions, and failure to protect intellectual property…That is the course that president Trump laid out in the summer of 2017. (p 145)

This Strategy Compelled China to Come to the Negotiating Table

The trading relationship between the United States and China was profoundly changed by the Section 301 tariffs in ways that have made the United States less dependent on its most dangerous global adversary.

[4] Section 301 of the Trade Act

Although overall trade with China rose during the pandemic and has remained at record highs, the mix of trade has changed considerably. Imports of the most sensitive, technology-heavy products on Section 301 tariff lists 1, 2 and 3, which are subject to 25% tariff, are down considerably—60-70 percent in some cases. China’s overall share of US imports is also down. And, more importantly, US companies have woken up to the dangers of having all of one’s eggs in the China basket. Surveys show that US companies’ optimism about the business outlook in China is at an all-time low.

[5] US Business Sentiment in China Hits Record Low as Zero-COVID Persists, Survey shows,” Reuters, October 27, 2022

US Exports to China have increased considerably in recent years. After dipping to $106 billion when China’s retaliatory tariffs were in full effect, US exports to China reached $151 billion in 2021 and surpassed that record in 2022 with $154 billion. (p 200-201)

[6] Trade in goods with China, U.S. Census Bureau.

All Biden had to do when elected in 2020 was stick with the program Trump set in place. He managed to do that.

[7] No Trade is Free, Robert Lighthizer, HarperCollins Publishers., 195 Broadway, New York, NY 10007. 2003.

A picture of the alaska state capitol and a logo for donn liston.

Biden’s Bluster

As the 2024 campaign heated up earlier this year–while Biden was still candidate for reelection before the Democrat/Communist coup installed long avowed Communist candidate Kamala Harris–he declared with great bluster further increased tariffs.

The academic background of Kamala’s father Donald Harris, an economics professor at Stanford University, underpins Trump’s accusations that she is a Marxist.

Biden:
The fact is that American workers — can outwork and outcompete anyone, as long as the competition is fair. But for too long, it hasn’t been fair. 

For years, the Chinese government has poured state money into Chinese companies across a whole range of industries: steel and aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, solar panels — the industries of the future — and even critical health equipment, like gloves and masks. 

China heavily subsidized all these products, pushing Chinese companies to produce far more than the rest of the world can absorb. And then dumping the excess products onto the market at unfairly low prices, driving other manufacturers around the world out of business. 

Bottom line: I want fair competition with China, not conflict.  And we’re in a stronger position to win that economic competition of the 21st century against China than anyone else because we’re investing in America again.

[8] Remarks by President Biden on His Actions to Protect American Workers and Businesses from China’s Unfair Trade Practices, May 14, 2024.

This was a Natural Progression from What had Been Negotiated by Trump Administration

[9] US-China Relations in the Biden Era: A Timeline, China Briefing Website

Lighthizer’s book, No Trade is Free details how this Phase 1 Trade Agreement was negotiated with China–signed immediately prior to release of the Coronavirus from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. No Trade 2 nor Trade 3 Agreements were negotiated by hapless Biden in four years of his presidency, while China continues to flood Philippines with cheap crap, restrains buying PH goods, and displays ongoing belligerence toward Philippines’ historical and negotiated right to certain areas in the West Philippines Sea.

Review of how this Agreement was reached provides insight to what Asian trading partners might expect from Trump 2.0.

A map of the world with an arrow pointing to the center.
Every trip between Beijing and Washington D.C. for the negotiators of this monumental trade agreement required a stop in Alaska to refuel.

Trump 2.0 Will be Good for Philippines

All Asian Countries Should want Fair Trade

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning attends a press conference in Beijing, China on Jul 26, 2023. (File photo: REUTERS/Tingshu Wang)

We will continue to approach and handle China-US relations based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told a regular press briefing.

Our policy toward the United States has been consistent, she added.

Mao did not comment directly on the possibility of Trump’s re-election, but said the United States presidential election is an internal affair of the United States.

We respect the choice of the American people, she said.

[10] China hopes for ‘peaceful coexistence’ with US as Trump nears win

Since Trump Left Office in 2020 the World has Become a More Dangerous Place under Biden and the USA Democrat/Communists

Photo by Main Directorate of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kyiv – source page, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=124430604

Russian Invasion of Ukraine: On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which started in 2014. The invasion, the largest and deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, has caused hundreds of thousands of military casualties and tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilian casualties.

[11] Russian Invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022

Creator: Naaman Omar \ Copyright apaimages

Hamas attack on Israel: On 7 October 2023, Hamas and several other Palestinian nationalist militant groups launched coordinated armed incursions from the Gaza Strip into the Gaza Envelope of southern Israel, the first invasion of Israeli territory since the 1948 Arab–Israeli War.

[12] Hamas attack on Israel, October 7, 2023

Chinese cutters CCG-3105 and CCG-5303 deploy water cannons on BRP Bagacay (MRRV-4410) near Scarborough Shoal on April 30, 2024. Philippine Coast Guard Photo

[13] China Coast Guard Attacks Philippine Ships Near Scarborough Shoal, US Naval Institute News, Aaron-Matthew Lariosa, April 30, 2023

Photographs of cities reduced to rubble, or people dead in the street, have not been taken in the Indo-Pacific region yet, because Philippines has a mutual protection pact with USA, but China is mounting a force of evil with Russia, Iran and North Korea to threaten this region. Together with USA, Asian allies must stand against Communism even in the face of threats against Taiwan, and efforts to gain independence by Hong Kong as it seeks freedom with its longstanding capitalist economic success.

American adversaries are embolden by weakness. Alaska and Philippines share a history of exploitation and neglect by USA in the face of grave threats.

China Warships off the Alaska Coast

[14] West vs East in A Dangerous World, DONN LISTON June 11, 2024

Threat of the People’s Republic of China

Current (Biden) Indo-Pacific Strategy

This intensifying American focus is due in part to the fact that the Indo-Pacific faces mounting challenges, particularly from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The PRC is combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological might as it pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific. From the economic coercion of Australia to the conflict along the Line of Actual Control with India to the growing pressure on Taiwan and bullying of neighbors in the East and South China Seas, our allies and partners in the region bear much of the cost of the PRC’s harmful behavior. In the process, the PRC is also undermining human rights and international law, including freedom of navigation, as well as other principles that have brought stability and prosperity to the Indo-Pacific. 

Further:

Our objective is not to change the PRC but to shape the strategic environment in which it operates, building a balance of influence in the world that is maximally favorable to the United States, our allies and partners, and the interests and values we share. We will also seek to manage competition with the PRC responsibly. We will cooperate with our allies and partners while seeking to work with the PRC in areas like climate change and nonproliferation. We believe it is in the interests of the region and the wider world that no country withhold progress on existential transnational issues because of bilateral differences.

[15] Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States, The White House February 2022

Options for Philippines

This Antipolo, Rizal construction worker probably makes US equivalent of $20-$30/day, depending on his skill level. In February of 2024 he still occasionally wears one of the Unity Ticket outfits from the 2022 campaign for President of Philippines.
This Unity Coalition is now broken and rice has not gotten any cheaper as was promised by Pres. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.

Former Pres. Duterete’s strategic pivot of Philippines toward stronger relations with China was arrested by election of Marcos Jr. The result is a stronger USA presence in our former colony and a blusterier China threatening most of its neighbors–and particularly Philippines.

[16] USA in Philippines; Military Buildup of our Asian Frontline, DONN LISTON March 16, 2024

This writer is still in Asia after two years on a tourist visa but made a great effort to vote absentee for Donald Trump for president of USA. Trump is a great Capitalist who left office as the most successful president in modern times in 2020, with Trade Sanctions managing China access to US markets, Iran financially destitute, Russia restraining from invasion of its neighbors, and North Korea on speaking terms. Over several decades China had become a world economic force because of American willingness to tolerate unfair trade practices and abiding Most Favored Nation trading status first given to China by USA in 2000, upon allowing China to join the disastrous World Trade Organization (WTO) seeking globalization and diminishment of USA.

Trump won election in a landslide. Now Sheriff Trump is back in town.

Philippines would do well to participate actively in the coming worldwide American Economic Renaissance. Other SE Asian countries can contribute to the Chinese-Communist economy, or they can stand together with the most powerful force for good in the world. USA is invested in Philippines and this country can benefit greatly from strategic cooperation and increased trade.

Everything Trump’s enemies have said about him is what they have done. The American people were not fooled. Honor, integrity, industry, loyalty and goodwill; with Trump, that is what it will boil down to.

A map of asia with the russian and chinese flags on it.

References:

[1] Office of the US Trade Representative Fact Sheet
https://ustr.gov/phase-one#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20and%20China%20signed%20an%20historic%20and%20enforceable,Intellectual%20Property

[2] Affidavit of Tony Bobulinski, Exhibit 400A
https://gop-waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/T58-Exhibit-400A-Anthony-Bobulinski-302-Interview-Memo_Redacted.pdf

[3] Comer Reveals How Joe Biden Received Laundered China Money, US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability
https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-reveals-how-joe-biden-received-laundered-china-money/

[4] Section 301 of the Trade Act is a tool that the US government uses to impose tariffs and other trade barriers on imports from countries that are considered to be “unfair”. The US has used Section 301 to varying degrees over time, and it’s most often applied to China.

[5] US Business Sentiment in China Hits Record Low as Zero-COVID Persists, Survey shows,” Reuters, October 27, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-business-sentiment-china-hits-record-low-zero-covid-persists-survey-2022-10-28

[6] Trade in goods with China, U.S. Census Bureau
www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html.

[7] No Trade is Free, Robert Lighthizer, HarperCollins Publishers., 195 Broadway, New York, NY 10007. 2003.

[8] Remarks by President Biden on His Actions to Protect American Workers and Businesses from China’s Unfair Trade Practices, May 14, 2024.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/05/14/remarks-by-president-biden-remarks-by-president-biden-on-his-actions-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/

[9] US-China Relations in the Biden Era: A Timeline, China Briefing Website
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-relations-in-the-biden-era-a-timeline/

[10] China hopes for ‘peaceful coexistence’ with US as Trump nears win
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/china-peaceful-coexistence-president-donald-trump-wins-us-elections-4730251

[11] Russian Invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

[12] Hamas attack on Israel, October 7, 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_October_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel

[13] China Coast Guard Attacks Philippine Ships Near Scarborough Shoal, US Naval Institute News, Aaron-Matthew Lariosa, April 30, 2023

[14] West vs East in A Dangerous World, DONN LISTON June 11, 2024
https://donnliston.net/2024/06/west-vs-east-in-a-dangerous-world/[15] Indo-Pacific

[15] Strategy of the United States, The White House February 2022
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf

[16] USA in Philippines; Military Buildup of our Asian Frontline, DONN LISTON March 16, 2024
https://substack.com/home/post/p-142601877

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